TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF GROUND-LEVEL OZONE IN MUDA IRRIGATION SCHEME AREA (MADA), KEDAH.
Loading...
Date
2011
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Journal of Sustainability Science and Management
Abstract
Time-series analysis and forecasting has become a major tool in many applications in
air pollution and environmental management fields. The forecast of air pollution can be used as
warning to the public and for decision makers to establish strategies and measures in cases of
high air-pollution levels. It has long been recognised that pollutant gases cause signifcant impacts
on crops and studies conducted revealed that surface ozone is responsible for most of the cropyield losses from air pollutants. Hence, this study aims to ft and exemplify time-series analysis in
forecasting ozone concentrations in Sungai Petani, a town situated in the Muda Irrigation Scheme
Area (MADA), Kedah. In this study, Box-Jenkins methodology was used to build an Autoregressive
Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for monthly ozone data from 1999-2007 with a total
of 108 readings. Parametric seasonally-adjusted ARIMA (1,0,1)x(2,1,2)12 with constant model was
successfully applied to predict the long-term trend of ozone concentration. The detection of a steady
statistically-significant upward trend for ozone concentration in Sungai Petani is quite alarming
because MADA produces 40% of the total rice production in Malaysia. This is likely due to sources
of ozone precursors related to industrial activities from nearby areas and the increase in road-traffic
volume.
Description
Keywords
Surface ozone, time-series analysis, ARIMA, seasonal variation, MADA area