Can Greater Openness and Deeper Financial Development Drag ASEAN-5 into Another Series of Economic Crises?

Abstract

In the event of economic crises, it is observed that economic volatility becomes more severe. Therefore, the aim of this study is to examine the impact of greater openness and deeper financial sector development in influencing the level of economic volatility which could trigger economic crises in both long-and short-run periods in the case of ASEAN-5 countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Given that more attention is needed to address the issue, the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimations developed by Pesaran et al. (1999) and data ranging from 1980 to 2014 were employed to address the issue. With the ability to estimate short-run coefficients at each country level and its speed of adjustment, this study further fills the knowledge gap. Based on the analysis, it is found that greater trade and financial openness may further relax economic volatility in the long-run, suggesting greater international risk sharing which soothes consumption shocks.