Socio‐environmental mapping for the prediction of aquaculture success of Pacu (Colossoma spp., Piaractus spp., and hybrids) in the Bolivian Amazon

Abstract

Tropical aquaculture has great potential to contribute to Bolivia’s food security and rural livelihoods. However, despite substantial development in neighboring countries, growth of the sector has been slow and intermittent in Bolivia. One of the key limitations to effective growth is an inadequate knowledge of the aquaculture potential for its expansion. The development of a predictive tool for aquaculture propensity in the Bolivian Amazon (708,482.4 km2) for pond culture of native “pacu” (Colossoma macropomum, Piaractus spp., and their hybrids) is described. This tool includes environmental variables (water availability, temperature, flooding, and soil type) and accessibility variables (market, food and fingerling suppliers, technical assistance), that were assigned weights and thresholds through advice from experts and producers to create suitability levels pacu fish culture. Spatial modeling generated a raster map of 900 m resolution, mapping specific suitability levels. The resulting suitability map was subjected to a sensitivity analysis, to check for undue influence of individual variables. Finally, the predictive map was compared to actual fish pond distribution, resulting in an accuracy of 85.6%. This validation process indicates that the resulting tool can be used with confidence in identifying promising areas for pacu aquaculture in the Bolivian Amazon. The model can also be refined in the future with new variables as these become available with new research, such as predictions of economic performance.